Do you plan to buy fewer plastic water bottles in the future? Maybe not, but now that you’ve been asked the question, you’re bound to think about it. This psychological effect could be used to encourage people to reduce their plastic consumption, three scientists write on The Conversation. We translate their article from French to English:
With a growth rate of 73% over the last decade, the bottled water market is one of the fastest growing in the world. Unfortunately, this consumption has harmful environmental consequences: increased plastic waste, greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production, transport and distribution of bottles, and the over-exploitation of water resources to produce bottled water. These impacts are exacerbating the current environmental crisis. Given this situation, reducing our reliance on bottled water is becoming a critical environmental issue.
In 2020, a study by Futerra and OnePulse found that 80% of respondents said they were willing to change their habits to combat climate change, and 50% of them planned to limit their use of plastic. However, there has been little research into communication strategies to reduce the consumption of bottled water.
Autoprophecy: a question to inspire change
Our research examines the impact of so-called autoprophecies on reducing the purchase of plastic bottled water in the United States, based on a sample of 269 people. Autoprophecies refer to a psychological phenomenon whereby simply asking people questions about their future behaviour (e.g., “Will you recycle your packaging?”) can increase the likelihood that they will adopt that behaviour. Our study analyses this process and examines how individual factors can modulate its effects.
Researchers have shown that the effects of self-prophecy can be explained by the theory of cognitive dissonance. When people are asked to predict their future behaviour, they may become aware of a discrepancy between their normative beliefs (what they think is socially desirable or acceptable) and their behaviour. This discrepancy creates dissonance, or a contradiction, which often motivates people to modify their actions to bring them more in line with their values.
Feeling guilty in advance for an action that goes against our values
In our study, we show the emotional mechanism by which the demand for self-prophecy influences pro-environmental behaviour through the mediation of anticipated guilt. In his book A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, the American psychosociologist Leon Festinger describes dissonance as a state of psychological discomfort that creates aversion and motivation to change behaviour. However, he did not explicitly specify the nature of this discomfort. Later theorists of dissonance identified guilt as an emotion provoked by dissonance in certain situations.
We explored this idea by focusing specifically on guilt, hypothesising that individuals anticipate this feeling when they consider not adopting an environmental behaviour. This is particularly the case when this behaviour is in line with their normative beliefs (i.e. the social or cultural expectations they conform to in certain situations). Thus, this anticipation of guilt leads them to respond to requests for behaviour in line with ecological values in order to avoid this negative feeling.
To test this hypothesis, we measured guilt in participants exposed to an advertisement containing a predictive question aimed at reducing their purchases of bottled water. These participants felt more guilt in advance than those in the control group who were exposed to an ad without a prediction question. This anticipated guilt in turn reduced their intention to buy bottled water.
Effects that vary by individual
We looked at two factors that might influence the effectiveness of the self-prophecy technique: normative beliefs and the motivations that lead people to commit to an action.
Previous research has highlighted the importance of normative beliefs. Individuals who are strongly attached to their beliefs are more likely to predict that they will behave in accordance with those beliefs and to actually do so. We looked at how different types of norm influence intentions. Some norms are descriptive (what most people do), some are injunctive (what we think is expected of us) and some are personal (our own internal moral standards).
The results show that these three types of norms have a direct impact on anticipated guilt. Participants believe that most people buy fewer bottles, that it is socially expected, and that it is in line with their personal beliefs. The stronger these norms, the greater the anticipated guilt in case of non-compliance. However, we did not observe any interaction between norms and the prediction question. This suggests that a prediction question does not make normative beliefs more salient at the time of prediction and therefore does not guide participants in their decision making.
We also assessed approach motivation, i.e. the desire to engage in actions that provide positive experiences or rewards. This allows us to measure a so-called BAS score (for Behavioural Approach System): people with the highest scores are more likely to try to achieve their goals, whether they are concrete (e.g. reaching or grasping an object) or more abstract (e.g. altruism or productivity). These individuals make greater efforts to achieve goals that give them pleasure, thereby reducing the gap between what they set out to do and what they actually do.
Those most susceptible to dissonance are those least likely to achieve their goals
Contrary to our hypothesis, individuals with a low sensitivity to reward and the search for positive experiences feel more guilt than those with a high score. Our interpretation is that although individuals with a low score on this test are less motivated to take action to achieve their goals, they become more aware of the gap between their current behaviour and their personal norms when asked about it. This heightened awareness of the gap between their actions and their norms, even in the absence of strong motivation, generates a stronger sense of anticipated guilt. As a result, although they have less impetus to act, this anticipation of guilt increases their intention to reduce their consumption of plastic bottles.
Conversely, individuals with a high score appear to be intrinsically willing to conform their actions to their norms, which reduces their cognitive dissonance. They appear to act proactively to close the gap between their behaviour and their goals, thereby reducing their anticipated guilt.
Using autoprophecies in environmental campaigns
The results of our study open up new perspectives for environmental awareness campaigns. Government agencies and NGOs can easily incorporate prediction questions into their communications to encourage environmentally friendly behaviour.
Contrary to previous findings, our results did not show the effect of normative beliefs on the effectiveness of self-prophecies. If such an effect had been observed, we would have found that the more participants held strong normative beliefs, the more their behaviour would have been influenced by self-prophecy, in particular by adapting their actions to conform to these norms. However, the literature shows that personal norms influence the way in which individuals form their intentions and adopt environmental behaviours. We therefore recommend using personal norms in self-propaganda campaigns, for example by creating messages that emphasise the need for pro-environmental action and the consequences of inaction.
It should also be noted that this study focuses on behavioural intentions. However, previous research has shown the effects of self-prophecies on actual (rather than anticipated) behaviour, repeated over time. For example, some studies have documented improvements in recycling over periods of four weeks after the protocol, or increased participation in sports clubs over periods of up to six months after the prediction. These varied results show that a simple question, by using an emotional lever, can really encourage the public to change their practices.
