With dam levels in Mexico’s state of Sinaloa falling by more than 10 per cent in less than two months, Sinaloa is experiencing an accelerated drought for 2025. At the end of October, the water level in the state’s reservoirs was 28.6 per cent, but by the end of December, just days before the end of 2024, it had fallen to 18.9 per cent.
First sowings of the new cycle
The president of the Junta Local de Sanidad Vegetal del Valle de Culiacán (JLSVVC), Miguel Manuel Palazuelos Arena, announced the delivery of individual planting permits, which show that as of 17 December 2024, 53,487 hectares have been planted with vegetables, fruit and cereals in the municipalities of Culiacán and Navolato. According to the Culiacán Valley Local Plant Health Board, around 150,000 hectares are under cultivation and barely 40 per cent of the total area has been sown.
Palazuelos Arenas detailed that the crops are as follows: 217 hectares of eggplant, 30 of broccoli, 30 of fodder, 1,717 of chilli, 219 of green beans, 1,494 of Chinese vegetables, 1,292 of cucumber, 2,934 of tomato, 91 of blueberry, 27 of tomatillo, 30 of squash, 13 of onion, 13 onions, 37 lemons, 20 blackberries, 5,049 hectares of yellow beans, 9,834 chickpeas, 167 pinto beans, 29,100 white corn, 486 yellow corn, 379 seed corn, 65 safflower, 205 sorghum and 8 wheat, totalling 53,487 hectares under development.
However, he affirmed that the sowing of vegetables, cereals and fruit trees is progressing very slowly because of the water controls of the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the irrigation modules, due to the low levels of the Sanalona, Adolfo López Mateos and José López Portillo reservoirs.
Critical drought
The president of the Confederation of Agricultural Associations of the State of Sinaloa (CAADES), Marte Vega Roman, explained that the first irrigations took place at the beginning of September with very low levels in the reservoirs, so at the moment the outlook is critical for crops with a high demand for this vital liquid, such as corn, which would be sown on about 250,000 hectares instead of the 500,000 hectares that were sown in the state, and currently around 150:
“We started with very low levels in all the reservoirs in the state, the programming was done with the district and each module took its appropriate measures depending on the situation, there was little area with high water demand such as corn.”
The agricultural director explained that the optional sowing of beans has already passed, corn is in its season, but there is no sowing due to lack of water, and they are looking for a way to get this agricultural cycle with the critical situation of water supply.
Marte Vega said that the situation with the lack of water is very worrying because there is no water and there is nowhere to manage it, but agreements have already been made with the state government to see how they can support the irrigation modules and the water boards.
The president of CAADES explained that many farmers have abandoned the activity due to the lack of support, budgets and programmes for the countryside, in addition to the water problem, which has worsened two years ago, so that a drastic change in food production in the state is expected by 2025.
On the other hand, the president of the Culiacan River Farmers Association, Enrique Riveros Echavarria, reported that the low maize production in the state will have an impact on the price, by increasing the selling prices, but will not be profitable, since the 250,000 hectares projected still do not exceed 180, and the planting season is about to end.
He added that the figures recorded do not mean that the sowing permits have not been paid for and are not reflected, as the tendency is for permits to take longer to pay for beans and chickpeas, but there is an increase there, so there is a report unlike last year, when many producers were ahead of schedule because they had wet land, and this year they had to register to be able to buy water and sow, as they were not dependent on it.
Drought 2025
Regarding the timing of the remaining water for Sinaloa, geophysicist Juan Espinoza Luna, reported that the different models calculated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NOAA) show that the status of the La Niña effect in the coming months, the drought will continue for the state of Sinaloa.
He explained that the La Niña phenomenon is likely to develop between December 2024 and January 2025 with 59 per cent probability, with a transition to ENSO neutral between March and May 2025 with 61 per cent probability. In this sense, he stressed that it is evident that the state of Sinaloa will continue with this period of drought, which will last until at least June 2025 and would be the worst drought in the last 50 years.
The president of the Confederation of Agricultural Associations of the State of Sinaloa (CAADES), Marte Vega Roman, stressed that frost is another problem for the field, so the risk is greater this year because the environment is practically dry:
“When the environment is dry, the drop in temperature is greater, so the main thing we have to do as growers is to keep the soil moist to counteract the low temperatures.”
However, he mentioned that this is an action that cannot be carried out at the moment because there is not enough water, so there is a great risk that the winter will be stronger due to the dryness of the whole state.
Marte Vega Román explained that they cannot counteract this with the moisture that the water gives them in the irrigations, which is the only thing they have left to do, as well as being insured in case of an accident, to have agricultural insurance.
