How climate models could be underestimating drought.
After a record fall, when nearly the entire United States experienced drought—unprecedented in US Drought Monitor history—water managers and planners nationwide are nervously hoping for a wet winter, cautious about prolonged dry spells that leave their communities vulnerable.
This caution is well-founded. Climate models paint an alarming picture of escalating drought risks in many parts of the world as temperatures rise. But as sophisticated as these numerical models are, they may actually be underestimating the true risks from prolonged dry spells in a warming world.
