Growing Scarcity, Growing Demand: Water Conflict Brews in Central Asia.
Central Asia is at a pivotal moment in its environmental and political trajectory. Climate change, mounting water scarcity, and unresolved governance issues inherited from the Soviet era are combining to reshape relationships across the region. In the short term, the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—are likely to deepen cooperation and integration. But looking further ahead, the risk of water conflict among these states, particularly over cross-border rivers, is expected to grow significantly as environmental pressures intensify and institutions are slow to respond.
Water Scarcity: A Growing Regional Challenge
Central Asia is one of the most water-stressed regions in the world. Its two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, are already under serious pressure due to shrinking glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountain ranges, inefficient agricultural practices, and rising demand from a growing population. Satellite imagery and long-term measurements show that glaciers feeding these rivers have lost up to 70% of their volume since the 1960s, and projections suggest further loss of water availability as global temperatures continue to rise.
