Groundwater in armed conflict zones: The case of the Orontes River Basin – Syria.
Water scarcity and droughts are often considered as major drivers of armed conflicts globally. However, the effects of armed conflict on water resources, particularly groundwater, are not well understood. The case of the Orontes River Basin (ORB) provides valuable insights into this issue, illustrating how cropland abandonment and population displacement have led to significant changes in groundwater storage. Since the 1960s, the ORB has experienced intensive agricultural development, leading to severe groundwater overexploitation. This trend continued until the onset of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. The subsequent collapse of groundwater-dependent irrigation systems and water supply infrastructure resulted in large-scale groundwater recovery. This recovery was evidenced by the re-emergence of previously dried springs and increased baseflow in the Orontes River. Due to the lack of relevant hydrogeological field data, we employed a suite of emerging remote sensing techniques to infer regional groundwater recovery. Firstly, a machine learning algorithm was applied to classify land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Landsat images, quantifying the reduction in irrigated agricultural lands post-war. Secondly, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) was used to detect land uplift and subsidence, correlating uplift with cropland abandonment and subsequent groundwater recovery. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of the extensive impacts of armed conflict on groundwater, contributing to improved water resource management strategies.
Mhanna, Saeed & Halloran, Landon & Brunner, Philip. (2024). Groundwater in armed conflict zones: The case of the Orontes River Basin – Syria.
